Despite practicing my efforts for the first three miles a bunch in training, I still went out too hard. While I recognized the mistake around the half way point, it wasn't until I reviewed my HR/pace splits that I saw how bad and how early things went screwy.
"I never race dumb, why would I do it all of a sudden in this race?" I wondered.
Then I started going over some of my other race results and notes from the last few years. Interestingly, I almost always go out too hard in running races. Other events (particularly triathlon and swimming) were paced much better, probably because I have a deeper background in swimming. Since tris start with swims, I do okay -- by the time the run comes along I'm usually in a groove to raise effort towards the end.
In most running races I've been able to fudge my effort management errors because I typically only participate in shorter stand-alone running events: 5k-15k. Last year's half marathon was the anomaly regarding pacing -- probably because I could see the first climbs on the course from the start (fear can be an effective governor).
So, it looks like I have two choices: stop competing in running events or learn how to control myself in the early miles of a race. I was leaning to the "no running" option because I'm naturally lazy and that's the pace of least resistance, but with 90% of the local events all beginning with a run (or, in the case of 5k and 10ks, also including a middle and end portion comprised of a run), I think I'll be better off adapting my racing strategy, otherwise I'll spend most of time sitting on the couch.
I had set a goal to break 1:30 in the Austin half marathon. In hindsight, that goal was completely arbitrary -- a nice, clean number, but not much else. I've done no testing to determine if the pace required is manageable, let along realistic (the workouts were on the calendar, I just didn't do them). That 1:30 reflects a six-minute improvement over my time from last year on a slightly different course. To run a 1:30, I essentially have to run the race in the same time it took me to run 12 miles last year.