I have a race number for Lake Placid: 262. For those interested, you can track me on ironman.com on Sunday, July 26. It should be pretty obvious how to do it once you're on the website.
The weather will probably be pretty cool compared with my current "I'm dying in the Texas heat" standards, so the temperature shouldn't really be a factor. I'm giving it 50/50 odds on if it rains or not. I lost my weather-control wand but I have a new jacket, so I'm not too worried.
Get the job done
My swim will be the easiest long-distance swim I've done. Part of that is because I haven't done the necessary swim training to mix it up with anyone and part of that is because -- after getting roughed up at LP last time -- it's not worth the mental energy getting frustrated. It'll be what it is.
I'm going to have a much quicker transition than my last two IMs. I've got a better wetsuit which shouldn't be too difficult to get off (unlike my last LP race, where I struggled with the top for five minutes and felt like I dislocated my shoulder). I'll probably be wearing my knee warmers under my wetsuit to save time during transition, so if you're there and looking for the dorkiest looking guy coming into the change tent, it'll probably be me -- essentially I'll be wearing capri pants.
I'll put on bike jersey, socks and shoes, put my gels and such in my pockets, roll on my arm warmers and grab my helmet and sunglasses. Depending on the weather, I'll either put on my rain jacket or a wind vest.
The bike is going to be controlled. I'm probably going to get passed by a lot of people. If everything works out, I'll see a bunch of them again in the last half of the marathon. We'll see how my bike fitness falls out. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, I have no real sense of my actual race speed, as I haven't done any race testing. I have done a whole mess of outdoor riding for the first time this year, so I know what efforts I should be putting out. We'll see what happens.
My second transition is going to be quick. I'm doing a full change to running gear as I like to have something to focus on. If it's cold/rainy, I'll still be wearing the arm warmers. High fashion.
The first 18 miles of the run is going to be relaxed -- just rolling along. I'll be walking out of transition and waving at the crowds telling me to get running. Once I start my actual run, I'll be walking for a bit (15-45 seconds) every 10 minutes. If everything is going great, I'll open it up in the last 10k and see what I can do. If everything is going good, I'll maintain pace. If things aren't going so good, I'll do everything I can to keep the wheels from flying off. Whatever happens, I'm going to PR the marathon.
Will I break 12 hours? I don't know. But I'm going to race like I'm going for a personal best, whatever the day brings.